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A Bold Prediction

Never apply positive feedback to an essentially random event because it fools individuals into thinking they have done something meaningful.


Early in 1996, I was assigned the position of Chief of Intelligence. My job was to review SITREPs (Situational Reports) and provide the Wing Commander with the latest threats to the Wing. When I entered the secure skiff on day one, I found a large stack of backlog SITREPs. Being a Systems Engineer by trade, I divided the SITREPs into piles of like reports and started reading/looking for everyday events. A few hours later, I started seeing a pattern with the information I was provided. There were no apparent indicators stateside; however, I noticed a common theme overseas in Saudi Arabia. Because we were getting ready to deploy our Wing members to a similar location, I decided to report on what I found based on the reports I received. Within two weeks of seeing all the elements of a terrorist attack, Khobar Towers happened. It is easy to say I saw it coming 25 years later. So, let me make another bold prediction based on current events.


There are three leading indicators to the demise of a nation: loss of faith in elected officials, loss of confidence in the election process, and loss of trust in the Constitution. The first two indicators have already been achieved. We're currently working on the third. When those who enforce the law are no longer subject to the law, there is no law. The smallest minority on earth is the individual. Those who deny individual rights cannot claim to be defenders of minorities. The only proper purpose of a government is to protect individual rights, which means to protect individuals from physical violence*. The government is not protecting individual rights but encouraging violence in the name of a group ideology. According to the Constitution, there is no such thing as group rights, only individual rights. If freedom of speech, like free will, is limited in any way, then it is not free. Individuals are quickly losing trust in the Constitution because it no longer supports them as individuals.


All major cities lack one crucial element to survive the next wave of rebellion: the means of production. Everything in a large metropolitan area depends on outside help. They cannot produce food, electricity, waste removal, and clean water without non-city dwellers providing the essential resources. The subsequent revolt will not be of ideology but of crucial resources. The large number of new members will quickly overwhelm the city's infrastructure and riot in rebellion. These new groups of people in the city will have multiple powerful tools to wage this rebellion, and it won't be bricks. At the same time, those individuals requiring government protection will be denied, along with the means to protect themselves. The last of the three elements will be achieved, and a national emergency will be declared.


It has become a running joke for those asking their financial advisors, "What should I invest in given the current world events?"A military friend once said he asked his financial advisor that question and the advisor replied, "Ammunition and Food." My friend said he quickly replied, "If I have enough ammunition, I won't need to stockpile food."

*Insights from Ayn Rand in the 50's

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